A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
